Friday, November 13, 2009

Home sales jump in West

Business News - Local News

Realtors: Home sales jump in West

Denver Business Journal - by Jeff Clabaugh Washington Business Journal

A key measure of U.S. home sales rose for the eighth consecutive month in September, the longest streak since 2001, with growth strongest in the West, a region including Colorado.

The National Association of Realtors' index of pending sales of existing homes rose 6.1 percent in September. Pending sales are up 21.2 percent from a year ago, the largest annual increase on record, the NAR says.

In the western states, including Colorado, pending sales in September were up 10.2 percent over August and up 23.7 percent over September 2008.

"What we are witnessing is a rush of first-time buyers trying to beat the expiration of the tax credit at the end of this month," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. "Home values will stabilize sooner rather than over-correcting."

Existing home sales, which make up the vast majority of home sales, are leading the recovery. Reports last week said sales of new homes fell 3.6 percent in September,while existing home sales jumped 9.4 percent.

Existing home sales were at a two year high in September. New home sales are down nearly 8 percent from a year ago.

The NAR predicts new home sales will continue to lag as home builders hold back production to drive down inventory. New home construction also continues to be hampered by an ongoing credit crunch for construction loans.

Click here for the NAR's full home-sales report and a video.



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Thursday, November 12, 2009

Google Maps Expands Real Estate Info

Google Maps Expands Real Estate Info
Google has been improving the usability of real estate information in its Google Maps function.

Users can now select the “real estate” option from the “more” button on the top right of any Google Map. They’ll automatically see balloons on the maps of listings, as well as a pop-up real estate refinement panel on the left.

From there, they can refine what they are searching for by checking the boxes for renting or buying, apartment or house, as well as price range, square footage, numbers of bedrooms and bathrooms, and foreclosure listings.

Google is also inviting real estate practitioners to list homes on Google Maps.

Source: eWeek, Clint Boulton (10/30/2009)

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Foreclosure filings drop in Denver area

Business News - Local News

Foreclosure filings drop in Denver area

Denver Business Journal - by Renee McGaw

Foreclosure filings in the Denver metro area fell nearly 1.6 percent in the third quarter from the same period a year ago, according to data from RealtyTrac Inc.

The Denver-Aurora area had the 47th-highest foreclosure-filing rate among 203 large U.S. urban areas in the first quarter of the year, according to figures released late Tuesday by RealtyTrac, an Irvine, Calif.-based marketer of foreclosure properties, in its “Metropolitan Foreclosure Market Report.”

A total of 9,235 properties in the area were in some stage of the foreclosure process in the July-through-September period, or one per every 113 households, RealtyTrac said. That was up 5.48 percent from the previous quarter, but down nearly 1.6 percent from the third quarter of 2008.

Cities in California, Florida and Nevada accounted for the 10 highest foreclosure rates in the third quarter among metro areas with a population of 200,000 or more. But five of those Top 10 metro areas reported decreasing foreclosure activity from the third quarter of 2008, while many other metro areas with Top 50 foreclosure rates reported sharp increases in foreclosure activity.

“Rising unemployment and a new variety of mortgage resets continued to gradually shift the nation’s foreclosure epicenters in the third quarter away from the hot spots of the last two years and toward some metro areas that had avoided the brunt of the first foreclosure wave,” RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio said in a statement. “While toxic subprime mortgages drove much of that first wave of foreclosures, high unemployment and exotic Alt-A Option ARMs are spreading the foreclosure flood to more metro areas in 2009.”

Among the top 50 metro foreclosure rates, the three biggest year-over-year increases were in Boise City-Nampa, Idaho, and Provo-Orem and Salt Lake City in Utah. In several states, the largest increases were posted in cities not previously a focal point for foreclosure activity.

Boulder, for example, experienced a 34 percent increase in foreclosures compared with the previous quarter, and a nearly 46 percent increase compared with the same quarter a year ago, according to RealtyTrac’s data. Boulder had 551 properties with foreclosure filings in the first quarter, or one in 224 households, and ranked 98th out of 203 cities, RealtyTrac said.

Colorado Springs ranked 56th on RealtyTrac’s list, and Fort Collins-Loveland ranked 52nd.

Greeley, at No. 33, was the highest-ranking Colorado city on the Q3 list, with 1,234 properties in foreclosure, or one for every 75 households.

Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev., topped the national list with one out of every 20 properties in foreclosure, followed by Merced, Calif. (1 in 27); Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. (1 in 27); Stockton, Calif. (1 in 28); Modesto, Calif. (1 in 30); and Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. (1 in 30).

RealtyTrac listed 203 metro areas with populations of 200,000 or more.

RealtyTrac’s metro-areas report parallels its much publicized state-by-state foreclosure rankings. The company’s Q3 ranking for Colorado showed the state had the ninth-highest foreclosure rate in the nation.

Colorado officials for years have disputed the state’s high position on RealtyTrac’s lists, particularly after Colorado’s foreclosure rate was described as the worst in the nation for most of 2006.

State officials have argued that the way Colorado’s public trustees report foreclosure data leads private entities like RealtyTrac to overcount foreclosures here. RealtyTrac has said its methodology is fair. But RealtyTrac officials won’t reveal many details of how it counts foreclosures, saying that it’s proprietary information.

State lawmakers last session passed a bill that would standardize the way Colorado reports foreclosure numbers. The state Division of Housing now reports monthly foreclosure data for selected areas within the state, as well as statewide quarterly foreclosure data.

On Oct. 8, state officials reported a 71.9 percent surge in Colorado urban-area foreclosure filings in September — to 3,480 filings, from 2,024 in September 2008. The big increase was partly due to a change in laws that temporarily reduced new filings last year, state officials said.

The report covered the seven counties of the Denver metro area, plus El Paso, Larimer, Mesa, Pueblo and Weld counties.

RealtyTrac’s numbers may differ from the state’s in part because the state numbers reflected only September, not the entire quarter, said Ryan McMaken, a spokesman for the Colorado Division of Housing, on Tuesday.

State-reported data also distinguishes filings from completed foreclosures, while RealtyTrac counts foreclosures at all stages of the process.

(Mark Harden contributed to this story)

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Denver fares better than nation in home resale prices

Business News - Local News

Denver fares better than nation in home resale prices

Denver Business Journal - by Paula Moore

Denver-area home resale prices dropped in August year over year, but were down far less than the national average, according to a First American CoreLogic Inc. report released Thursday.

According to First American’s LoanPerformance Home Price Index (HPI), metro Denver’s average home-resale price — including sales of distressed homes such as foreclosures and short sales — decreased 1.44 percent in August from the same month of 2008.

Nationwide, resale prices dropped 10.1 percent in August from August ’08.

Resales are sales of homes that have been sold at least once before.

First American’s HPI data doesn’t include actual selling prices. The types of housing the index covers include single-family homes, condominiums and townhomes.

By comparison, July home prices in the Denver area dropped 2.64 percent from those of July 2008, and June prices were down 3.21 percent year over year.

But excluding distressed sales, August home prices were down less than 1 percent — .58 percent — from the prior-year August.

July prices, not including distressed sales, decreased 1.26 percent and June’s prices dropped 1.68 percent year over year.

First American CoreLogic predicts Denver-area home prices will decrease 2.63 percent from August through August 2010.

In Colorado, the HPI index shows average resale home prices, including distressed sales, dropped 3.44 percent in August from the same month of 2008. Prices not including distressed sales were down only 2.83 percent.

Looking at other Western states, Nevada had a 24.4 percent drop in resale prices, including distressed sales, while Arizona had a 19.5 percent decrease.

First American CoreLogic expects overall Colorado resale prices to be down 1.87 from August to August 2010, and down 3.07 percent excluding distressed sales.

Based in Santa Ana, Calif., First American CoreLogic provides real estate information, including mortgage-related data and market trends.



All contents of this site © American City Business Journals Inc. All rights reserved.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Media Dropping Ball on Housing-Market Trends

Media Dropping Ball on Housing-Market Trends
by M. Anthony Carr

I clicked a link to the Wall Street Journal's market data chart, called the Hagerty's Quarterly Housing Report and was really taken aback by what they are reporting in the Washington, D.C. area (my home base).

Again, they have labeled our market as a "buyers" market and reported that more foreclosures are on the way. The problem I have with both those statements is that

  • they are created out of data provided by the real estate industry; and
  • they are accurate, but not truly reflective.

The real estate industry is its worst enemy when it comes to reporting sales data to the media and, ergo, the public. The reporters call, asking for the latest sales information and that's exactly what we hand them, latest solds, the houses that actually settled in the last month.

Then the media take that report and extrapolate a trend (in their minds) of what's going to happen in the local markets. The problem is they are usually wrong. The Journal's report is a good example. While they are reporting that the Washington, D.C. market has a 6.4 months supply (considered a normal to buyer market) any agent working the Washington suburbs will tell you that is far from the truth. We are sitting on hardly any inventory and in many of our pocket markets, we have just a few days' supply, much less weeks.

Split it up by price range, and some communities have less than 7 days' supply. The houses come on and sell in a day at or above listing price. The challenge for the media (or something they refuse to really look at) is that when they go to these "local" MLS organizations that serve a particular metropolitan area, they just lump it all in the same bowl and come out with one large biscuit and label it Chicago; or Washington, DC; or Big City Name here.

If you know the geography of Washington DC, then you'll probably be a little confused when you find out what's included in our MLS: Parts of Pennsylvania, Delaware and West Virginia. If those areas are included, then, yes, the DC market has a 6.4 months' supply.

In Pennsylvania there's an absorption rate of 13.5 months currently. In W.Va., it's a 10.8 months' supply and in Delaware, those good people have a 12.7 months' supply.

Right around the Beltway, however, which is DC-proper, the absorption rate is at 2.8 months. (That would be only Active properties, divided by pending sales written in the last 30 days). A buyer can see all the homes in their price range in about 15 minutes because there just aren't enough houses on the market.

So when the consumers around Washington (or Miami, Chicago, New York, etc.) read about the months' supply on Hagerty's Quarterly Housing Report in the Wall Street Journal – what's an agent to do? Who's the buyer going to believe – the Wall Street Journal, or the agent driving them around trying to sell them a house and earn a commission.

I mean, hey, what would the agent know? They just look at me as a big fat commission check, right? The market is turning in many metropolitan areas around the country – DC is at the head of the curve and many will follow. (In fact, at this writing, foreclosures make up only 18 percent of Fairfax County – one of the larges suburban markets in the DC area – 82% are regular sales.) But before you swallow the charts from the Big Media about absorption rates, talk with the agent who's actually working the area.



Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.

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Sunday, November 8, 2009

Home prices rise, but housing market still faces challenges

Home prices rise, but housing market still faces challenges

Home prices in major cities rose for a third consecutive month, but declining consumer confidence and a soon-to-expire tax credit for first-time home buyers could reverse the improving trend, economists said Tuesday.

Seasonally adjusted home prices increased in August, following increases in July and June, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city index released Tuesday. Prices rose in 17 of the 20 metro areas, and 14 saw prices jump for the third month in a row.

Overall, prices are up 3% from May. But in most areas, prices are still well below where they were at their peaks in 2006 or 2007.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board reported that consumer confidence fell sharplyin October from September. The fourth decline in the past five months surprised many economists who had forecast a small increase in the closely watched index.

Nearly 50% of consumers told the Conference Board that jobs were hard to get, up from 47% in September.

Wells Fargo economist Mark Vitner calls the report "a wake-up call for those who thought the economy was out of the woods."

The cash-for-clunkers program and the up-to-$8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers, which expires Nov. 30, boosted the economy last summer even more than anticipated, he says.

Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight, says that without the tax credit, prices could fall an additional 5% and hit bottom in 2010.

"If the tax credit isn't extended, the sky's not going to fall, but prices will probably worsen," he says.

Congress is weighing proposals to extend the credit into 2010, as well as broaden it to buyers who already own homes.

Another concern for the housing industry: growing foreclosure rates in some metro areas because of rising unemployment and resets of adjustable-rate mortgages, says RealtyTrac in a report out Wednesday.

Among the top 50 metro areas with the highest foreclosure rates in the third quarter, the three biggest year-over-year increases were in Boise City-Nampa, Idaho, and Salt Lake City and Provo-Orem, Utah.

RealtyTrac's report on third-quarter foreclosure filings in more than 200 metro areas shows Las Vegas had the nation's highest foreclosure rate at 5.13%.

RealtyTrac reported last week that Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate among states.

S&P/Case-Shiller home price index

Metro area
Index Aug. 2009
Change from July
Change from Aug. 2008
Atlanta
111.19
1.0%
-10.6%
Boston
155.95
0.9%
-4.2%
Charlotte
120.72
-0.4%
-8.6%
Chicago
130.55
1.7%
-12.7%
Cleveland
107.42
-0.5%
-2.8%
Dallas
121.44
0.2%
-1.2%
Denver
130.07
1.0%
-1.9%
Detroit
71.59
1.9%
-22.6%
Las Vegas
105.78
-0.3%
-29.9%
Los Angeles
166.52
1.6%
-12.0%
Miami
148.91
1.1%
-18.8%
Minneapolis
122.66
3.2%
-13.7%
New York
174.89
0.5%
-9.6%
Phoenix
108.41
1.6%
-25.1%
Portland
150.46
0.3%
-12.5%
San Diego
153.34
1.6%
-8.9%
San Francisco
132.47
2.8%
-12.5%
Seattle
149.54
0.1%
-14.7%
Tampa
143.43
0.4%
-17.7%
Washington
178.84
1.4%
-7.9%
20-city avg.
146.00
1.2%
-11.3%
Note: The indexes have a base value of 100 in January 2000; so a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since then for a typical home.
Source: Standard & Poor's and Fiserv